Predicting the outcomes of football matches is both a science and an art, involving complex data analysis and a bit of intuition. As a first test at predicting Premier League games, I set out to predict the outcomes of matches scheduled between April 20 and April 28, 2024. My goal was to forecast the winners and the number of goals scored by the home and away teams. Here’s a detailed analysis of our predictions and their comparison to the results.

The Process

1. Data Collection:

We gathered historical data for multiple Premier League seasons, including player statistics, match outcomes, and team performance metrics. This data was crucial in training our predictive models.

2. Feature Engineering:

We incorporated recent goal statistics and wage information for each team. The recent goals scored and conceded by teams provided context on their current form. The wage data included the total salary and salaries by position (forwards, midfielders, defensemen, goalkeepers).

3. Model Training:

Using the AutoGluon library, we trained two separate regression models to predict the number of goals for home and away teams. The models were trained using data from all seasons up to the 2023/2024 season, excluding the last 25% of matches from the 2023/2024 season reserved for testing.

4. Predictions:

We made predictions for the matches scheduled between April 20 and April 28, 2024. Our models predicted both the number of goals and the match winners.

Prediction Results

Here’s a summary of our predictions compared to the actual results:

MatchPredicted Home GoalsActual Home GoalsPredicted Away GoalsActual Away GoalsPredicted WinnerActual WinnerRounded Predicted Home GoalsRounded Predicted Away GoalsCorrect Winner
Luton Town vs Brentford1.15836512.3101925AwayAway121
Sheffield United vs Burnley1.04957711.6878384AwayAway121
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Arsenal0.45859902.6938392AwayAway031
Everton vs Nottingham Forest1.58376910.904720HomeHome211
Aston Villa vs AFC Bournemouth2.57087631.1085451HomeHome311
Crystal Palace vs West Ham United2.52027451.386222HomeHome311
Fulham vs Liverpool1.25051812.0140943AwayAway121
Arsenal vs Chelsea2.89722751.1436370HomeHome311
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs AFC Bournemouth0.63147301.4056261AwayAway111
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United2.64125620.9938940HomeHome311
Everton vs Liverpool1.06720111.8980210HomeHome121
Manchester United vs Sheffield United2.56253440.8453232HomeHome311
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester City0.7144702.3855974AwayAway121
West Ham United vs Liverpool0.98547721.808832AwayDraw120
Fulham vs Crystal Palace1.69795910.8628091HomeDraw210
Manchester United vs Burnley1.71517111.5115571HomeDraw220
Newcastle United vs Sheffield United3.65706250.8037841HomeHome411
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Luton Town0.97796121.2942681AwayHome110
Everton vs Brentford1.16228211.7523350AwayHome120
Aston Villa vs Chelsea1.92453321.2285192HomeDraw210

Prediction Accuracy

The accuracy of our predictions was as follows:

Winner Prediction Accuracy: 70.00%

Home Goals Prediction Accuracy: 40.00%

Away Goals Prediction Accuracy: 30.00%

Analysis and Insights

• The model performed well in predicting the match winners, with an accuracy of 70%. This indicates a solid understanding of overall team strengths and outcomes.

• Predicting the exact number of goals proved to be more challenging, with the model achieving 40% accuracy for home goals and 30% for away goals. This highlights the inherent variability and unpredictability in soccer matches.


Our machine learning model showed promise in predicting match outcomes, particularly in determining the winners. While there is room for improvement in predicting the exact number of goals, the results are encouraging and provide a foundation for further refinement and enhancement of the model.

As we continue to gather more data and refine our models, we expect to see even better performance and more accurate predictions in the future.

Feel free to share your thoughts and insights on our prediction model. How do you think we can improve our predictions further? Let us know in the comments below!

Categorized in:

Premier League Stats,

Last Update: June 29, 2024